FX.co ★ EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on November 27th (analysis of morning deals). Without unnecessary movements

In my morning forecast, I pointed out the level of 1.0962 and recommended making entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. The pair's growth occurred but never reached the test, and a false breakout formed at 1.0962. The reason for this is the market volatility, which remains low due to the lack of fundamental statistics and news. The technical picture still needs to be revised for the second half of the day.

To open long positions on EUR/USD, it is required:

Ahead of us are data on the volume of home sales in the primary market in the United States, which are expected to be quite dismal, leading to a further decline in the dollar and the rise of the euro. If the numbers please, I expect buyers to show up around the nearest support at 1.0928, where the moving averages, playing on the bulls' side, also intersect. I will act on the decline after the formation of a false breakout at the level of 1.0928. This will confirm the presence of buyers in the market and provide a good entry point for long positions in anticipation of the pair's rise and a test of the monthly maximum at 1.0962, which we did not reach in the first half of the day. A breakthrough and a new high within this range will give another signal to buy and a chance to update the maximum around 1.1004. The ultimate target will be the area of 1.1033, where I will take profit. With a decline in EUR/USD and the absence of activity at 1.0928 in the second half of the day, trading will remain within the sideways channel. In this case, entering the market will be possible after forming a false breakout around the support area of 1.0896. I will consider opening long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0857 with the aim of an upward correction within the day by 30-35 points.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, it is required:

Against the backdrop of low volatility, sellers are not particularly eager to enter the market. I expect their activity only after the formation of a false breakout around the monthly maximum of 1.0962, which will signal a sale for another descending correction and a test of support at 1.0928, just below the moving averages, playing on the buyers' side, pass. After breaking and consolidating below this range and a reverse test from bottom to top, I expect to receive another sell signal with an exit to 1.0896. The ultimate target will be the minimum of 1.0857, where I will take profit. Testing this level can significantly affect the prospects of buyers. In the case of an upward movement of EUR/USD during the American session against the backdrop of very weak housing market data in the US and the absence of bears at 1.0962, the development of a bullish market will continue. This will open the way to the maximum of 1.1004. Selling can be considered there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I will consider opening short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.1033 with the aim of a downward correction by 30-35 points.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for November 14, there was an increase in long positions and a significant reduction in short ones. It is worth noting that the released inflation data indicated that the cycle of interest rate hikes in the United States is over, which strongly impacted the US dollar and reduced short positions on the euro, restoring demand for it. Shortly, the minutes of the November meeting of the US Federal Reserve will be published, where traders will try to find answers to the remaining questions. Although it is already clear that rates have peaked, we can expect a decrease next year. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 8,707 to 221,190, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 11,144 to 112,283. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 3,283. The closing price sharply increased and amounted to 1.0902 against 1.0713.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

Trading is above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further pair growth.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands:

In case of a decrease, the lower boundary of the indicator will act as support around 1.0928.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked on the chart in yellow.
• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked on the chart in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
• Bollinger Bands. Period 20.
• Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between non-commercial traders' short and long positions.