Analysis of macroeconomic reports:
There will be several macroeconomic events on Friday. Today, without exaggeration, can be called the most important day from a fundamental and macroeconomic perspective. Essentially, there will be only one publication today that can truly be called important. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index will be released in the United States. For novice traders, it's worth noting that there are also S&P indices published for the US, the EU, and the UK. However, the ISM indices are only published in America and are considered more important than the S&P.
Of course, if the actual value of this index does not differ from the forecast (47.6 in November), we will not see any reaction. Nevertheless, this index is a real opportunity for the market to trade more actively today, at least during the American session.
Analysis of fundamental events:
From the fundamental events on Friday, the speeches of Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell immediately caught the eye. Ms. Lagarde may comment on yesterday's inflation report, according to which the inflation rate slowed to 2.4%. Thus, we can expect a softening of the "hawkish" rhetoric. And for the euro, this will be a reason for it to continue falling. Expectations for Powell should be low now, as there have been no significant economic publications in the US recently. Nevertheless, Powell is the head of the world's largest central bank. Based on an understanding of this fact, interesting statements can be expected from him. Jerome Powell will speak later in the evening, so only Lagarde's speech and the ISM index will be important for the market during the day.
General conclusions::
On Friday, there will be at least three interesting events, each of which can trigger a good market reaction. Regardless of the background, the euro and the pound should continue to decline. However, it should be remembered that the market has been actively buying European currencies in recent weeks, neglecting the dollar. One day (yesterday) cannot guarantee that the uptrend is broken. But the euro and the pound have been overbought for a long time.
Basic rules of the trading system:
- The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or level breakthrough). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
- If two or more trades on false signals were opened near a certain level, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
- In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, it is better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
- Trading deals are opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session when all trades must be closed manually.
- On a 30-minute TF, trades based on MACD indicator signals are only conducted in the presence of good volatility and a confirmed trend, which is confirmed by the trend line or trend channel.
- If two levels are located too close to each other (5 to 15 points), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
What's on the charts:
Support and resistance levels are targets when opening buy or sell positions. Near them, Take Profit levels can be placed.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and show which direction is preferable to trade.
MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3) - histogram and signal line - an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly affect the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with maximum caution or exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
For beginners trading in the forex market, it should be remembered that only some trades can be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.
