Stock markets halt rally in anticipation of important economic data, primarily from the US.
The focus lies on the number of new jobs from ADP and the US Department of Labor, where analysts expect to see figures below 200,000, which indicates a deterioration in the unemployment situation.
The manufacturing data from the ISM will also be of interest, as well as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data. According to forecasts, the former will rise from 51.8 points to 52.0 points, while the latter will decrease from 9.553 million to 9.3 million.
If they turn out to be below expectations, it may initially cause a wave of negativity because the numbers will indicate a general deterioration in the economic situation. This could lead to a local decline in the US and, subsequently, European and Asian stock indices. At the same time, they will also be seen as a strong signal that the Fed must stop talking about the possibility of further interest rate hikes. However, in the end, the potential negativity of the indicators will be perceived positively because it will bring closer not only the cessation of speculation about the continuation of interest rate hikes but also the likelihood of an earlier start to the process of lowering interest rates to stimulate the national economy.
As for today's dynamics in the markets, consolidation in stock indices will continue, with a possible slight decrease in anticipation of the publication, primarily of the labor market data in the US. In the forex market, dollar will likely receive weak support due to the closing of several short positions, but at the same time, like Treasury yields, it will generally consolidate.
Forecasts for today:
EUR/USD:
The pair traded above the support level of 1.0830. There may be further growth to 1.1015 in the case of negative news for dollar.
USD/JPY:
The pair consolidated below the resistance level of 147.50. Negative news for dollar may resume the decline towards 145.80.
