Trade analysis and tips for trading the Japanese yen
The test of the price at 145.91 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly down from the zero mark, clearly limiting the further downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I refrained from selling. I did not wait for other market entry signals. The decline in the dollar continued, resulting in a significant downward movement in USD/JPY. Considering the disregard for fairly weak reports on the growth rates of the Japanese economy, it can be unequivocally stated that traders seriously expect the Bank of Japan to abandon its negative interest rate policy much earlier than anticipated. Given the strong surge in volatility, it is necessary to act extremely cautiously. Only strong data on the unemployment rate and changes in the number of non-farm employees in the United States will lead to a more powerful upward correction in the pair. If the reports disappoint, selling further can be done confidently, counting on developing a bearish scenario. As for intraday prospects, I will act, relying more on the implementation of scenario No. 1.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Buying USD/JPY today is possible when the entry point is reached around 144.65 (green line on the chart), with the target rising to 145.43 (thicker green line). At 145.43, I recommend exiting purchases and opening sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Counting on a strong rise in the pair today will only be possible after very strong labor market statistics in the United States. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: Buying USD/JPY today is also possible in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 144.08 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market reversal. Expect growth to the opposite levels of 144.65 and 145.43.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: Selling USD/JPY today is possible only after updating the level of 144.08 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 143.25, where I recommend exiting sales and immediately opening purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will persist in current conditions, especially after weak data on the US labor market. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is only starting to decline.
Scenario No. 2: Selling USD/JPY today is also possible in the case of two consecutive price tests at 144.65 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market reversal downward. Expect a decline to the opposite level of 144.08 and 143.25.
On the Chart:
Thin green line – entry price to buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line – the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price to sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line – the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, following the overbought and oversold zones is important.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market should be careful when making entry decisions. Staying out of the market before releasing important fundamental reports is best to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your deposit without placing stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember that you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above for successful trading. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
