According to the weekly gold survey, retail investors continue to anticipate price growth this week, while the majority of market analysts are either bearish or neutral.
Mark Leibovit, publisher of the VR Metals/Resource Letter, has shifted his previous optimistic view to a neutral one. He explained that he took into account the sharp rise in the value of the U.S. dollar.
Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, also expressed a bearish sentiment. The market's reaction to non-farm payrolls and wage inflation data pushed Treasury bond yields and the dollar higher. He speculates that the Federal Reserve will now be less dovish.
James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, forecasts a price increase this week. He refers to the tendency of gold this year to set bear traps and quickly reverse. However, he notes that there are two additional drivers this week—CPI and FOMC—so the situation may change rapidly.
Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, changed his position from neutral to negative, believing that the NFP report shattered the optimism from other recent reports. In his opinion, gold could easily drop below $2,000 and find support around $1,975.
However, fundamental assumptions suggest that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will halt policy tightening with stable inflation, and such a scenario is very optimistic for gold.
Daniel Pavilonis, Senior Commodities Broker at RJO Futures, believes that the pause in the rise of precious metal prices last week coincided with a pause in the decline of yields. He attributes the spike in gold prices to geopolitical factors and suggests a sideways trend around the $2,000 per ounce level this week.
In the recent survey participated by 15 Wall Street analysts, three, or 20%, expect price growth this week. Eight analysts, or 53%, predict a decline, while the remaining four, or 27%, remain neutral.
In an online poll with 729 votes, investors maintain an optimistic outlook. 428 retail investors, or 59%, anticipate price growth, 167, or 23%, expect a decrease, and 134, or 18%, remain neutral.
This week, central banks will again take the spotlight in the news. The FOMC will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, followed by decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England on Thursday. All three countries are expected to keep interest rates unchanged. However, it is worth monitoring the news.
The next data releases to watch include the U.S. Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index on Wednesday, and the Empire State manufacturing survey and Flash PMI on Friday.
