For the pound/dollar pair, the wave analysis remains quite clear and, at the same time, continues to be complicated. The construction of a new downward trend section continues, the first wave of which took on a very extended form. The second wave also turned out to be quite extended, giving us every reason to expect the prolonged construction of the third wave.
At the moment, I am not confident that the construction of wave 2 or b is complete. The pullback of quotes from the peaks reached is too small to consider it a guaranteed start of wave 3 or c. The increase in the British pound quotes against the backdrop of the Bank of England and the Fed meetings led to a significant increase, and now wave 2 or b has taken on a five-wave appearance. However, it remains corrective and should be completed soon. Targets for the pair's decline within wave 3 or c are located below the 1.2039 level, corresponding to the low of wave 1 or a.
Unfortunately, wave analysis tends to be complicated, and the news background needs to pay more attention to the wave picture and try to correspond to it. I do not reject the working scenario at the moment, but there is a risk of transforming the entire wave structure.
The US currency is under pressure again due to American reports.
The exchange rate of the pound/dollar pair rose by 30 basis points on Thursday. Such a small increase cannot end the prospects of building the presumed wave 3 or c. But every day when demand for the US currency does not increase brings us closer to the moment when the entire wave analysis must be revised. Earlier, you should try working with the simplest wave formations. However, even simple structures only look simple and, over time, become so complex that they become impossible.
For the umpteenth time, everything says that the construction of wave 3 or c should begin. However, today, the GDP report for the third quarter in the United States was released, which shows a value lower than in the previous two estimates. It remains only to ask how the American Statistical Bureau calculates if they constantly have mishaps. The market, confident that the American economy grew by 5.2%, was not ready for the figure of 4.9%, and demand for the US currency again decreased. That's the whole story. The construction of the presumed Wave 3 or c is still ongoing for now, and Wave 2 or b still has a convincing appearance, but every day without a decrease makes one doubt whether the dollar can grow at all.
General conclusions.
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar pair suggests a decline within the descending wave 3 or c. At the moment, I am considering selling the pair with targets located below the 1.2039 level because wave 2 or b should ultimately be completed and can be completed at any moment. The longer it takes, the stronger the decline of the British pound will be. The peak of the presumed wave e in 2 or b can be used for sales, and an order limiting possible transaction losses can be placed above it.
The picture is similar to the euro/dollar pair on a larger wave scale, but there are still some differences. The descending correction section of the trend continues its construction, and its second wave has already taken on an extended form - at 61.8% from the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break through this level may lead to the start of the construction of 3 or c.
