During the first week of 2024, gold traded consistently above $2,000 per ounce.
According to the latest weekly survey, exactly half of retail investors expect gold prices to rise, while two-thirds of market analysts hold an optimistic view regarding the short-term prospects of the yellow metal.
James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, believes that gold prices should pull back this week.
Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, has shifted his short-term view from bearish to bullish.
Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, thinks that the gold sell-off following the news about the increase in jobs was linked to adjustments in expectations for Fed rate cuts, but the simmering conflict in the Middle East also supports precious metal prices. Gold, in any case, will be a priority, warning that the Fed and the Treasury are contradicting each other.
Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, says seasonality and recent employment data point to rising gold prices, but the reaction of gold to the Consumer Price Index will be key. He believes that by the end of January, gold will reach $2,100 or $2,080 per ounce. Button also sees the dollar weakening this week, so he is optimistic about the yellow metal.
Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, thinks the precious metal will trade sideways this week. Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, believes that gold will rise this week, although the short-term trend for February futures remains downward.
Nine Wall Street analysts participated in the gold survey. Six of them, or 66%, expect prices to rise. Only one analyst, or 11%, predicts a fall. The remaining two, or 22%, are neutral.
In an online poll, 301 votes were cast. 149 retail investors, making up 50%, expect prices to rise. Another 79, or 26%, anticipate a decline, and 73 investors, or 24%, are neutral.
The most important event for gold this week will be the Consumer Price Index report for December, which will be published on Thursday. If inflation continues to decrease, it could further strengthen market optimism regarding the timing of interest rate cuts. U.S. trade balance data for November will be released on Tuesday. MBA mortgage applications will follow on Wednesday, then weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and finally, the U.S. Producer Price Index for December on Friday.
Overall, the charts remain bullish, but the rally in USDX – the dollar index, and the rise in bond yields are making gold bulls wary.
