FX.co ★ GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on January 12th (analysis of morning deals)

In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level of 1.2753 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The drop and the formation of a false breakout at this level led to an excellent entry point for buying the pound, increasing the pair by more than 25 points. The technical picture was slightly revised in the second half of the day.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:

The UK GDP data was positive, but traders reacted cautiously. The released indicators, including those for industrial production, do not inspire optimism about the economy's future against such high-interest rates. In the second half of the day, we have producer price data coming out in the US. Only a very significant price growth slowdown, which I doubt, will trigger further strengthening of the British pound. If prices return to an upward trend by the end of the year, as was the case with overall inflation, it is more likely that pressure on the pair will increase. I prefer to act on buying only after a decline and the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2741, similar to what I discussed earlier. This will provide another entry point for long positions in continuation of the bullish market, from which it will be possible to reach 1.2781 - a new intraday resistance level. A breakout and consolidation above this level, against the backdrop of very low inflation in the US, will strengthen demand for the pound and open the way to 1.2823, where I expect sellers to become more active. The ultimate target will be the 1.2853 area, where I plan to make a profit. In the GBP/USD decline scenario and the absence of bullish activity at 1.2741, where we also have moving averages, pressure on the pound will return. In this case, I will postpone purchases until the next support level of 1.2716. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound only from 1.2690, aiming for a 30-35 point correction within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:

Sellers tried but failed to break below 1.2753. Now, serious consideration should be given to how to protect the weekly maximum of 1.2781. Only the formation of a false breakout after the release of inflation statistics will provide a suitable entry point for short positions with a prospect of decline to the support area of 1.2741. A breakout and reverse test from below to above this range will deal a more serious blow to the positions of the bulls, opening the path to 1.2716. The ultimate target will be the 1.2690 area, where I plan to make a profit. In the scenario of GBP/USD rising and the absence of activity at 1.2781, it is more likely that buyers will regain the initiative. In this case, I will postpone selling until a false breakout occurs at 1.2823. Without downward movement, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.2853, but only with the expectation of a pair correction down by 30-35 points within the day.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for January 2nd, there was an increase in both long and short positions. Demand for the pound persists, as the recent decision of the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged, expecting further struggle with high inflation, as well as statements by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, that rates will remain high for a prolonged period. All of this contradicts the expected policy of the Federal Reserve in the United States, where the regulator plans to lower interest rates, noting good progress in combating inflation. This leads to a weakening of the dollar against the British pound in the medium term. If the new data on price growth in the US once again please central bank representatives, we can expect another rise in GBP/USD. The latest COT report states that long non-commercial positions increased by 3,044 to 61,794, while short non-commercial positions increased by only 1,931 to 46,589. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 38.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading occurs around the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages considered by the author are on the H1 hourly chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2716, will act as support.

Description of indicators:

• Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.

• Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.

• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — measures the convergence and divergence of moving averages). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.

• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands indicator). Period 20.

• Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, use the futures market for speculative purposes and are subject to specific requirements.

• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open positions of non-commercial traders.

• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.

• The net non-commercial position is the difference between non-commercial traders' short and long positions.