The current price of Bitcoin has risen above $40,195 as markets recover from Wednesday's established low. This month, the opening time of the U.S. stock market has become more significant for crypto investors. Spot ETFs on Bitcoin continue to attract heightened interest, and a balance is starting to form on the GBTC front.
After spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading, GBTC investors, expecting a reversal of the long-standing negative premium, made mass sales. Knowing this, Grayscale kept the ETF management fee at a comparatively high level of 1.5%, significantly higher than competitors who charged less than 0.3%.
However, now we see that although demand for ETFs other than GBTC is growing, their reserves continue to rise. As of the market close on Wednesday, the total reserves of Bitcoin ETFs, excluding GBTC, reached 113,231.
GBTC reserves started the day at 536,695, compared to 619,162 on January 10. Fortunately, we see that the panic is beginning to subside, as only BlackRock and Fidelity have created demand for about 80,000 BTC.
Forecasts for Spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024
Experts predict that capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs will continue until the end of the year, leading to an increase in reserves. The total size of ETPs and other funds is currently $30 billion. Analysts believe that if this figure increases by 10%, Bitcoin could reach a new peak between $50,000 and $60,000.
However, this figure should be significantly higher. At least, recent data indicate reserves of more than 100,000 BTC in just ten days, excluding GBTC, making this possible. Less than a full week of trading has passed since the ETF approval. By the end of this week, spot Bitcoin ETFs will complete their first full week of trading.
It is expected that interest will increase in the coming weeks and months as other asset managers add ETF support. Franklin, which manages assets of more than one trillion dollars and is among the issuers, stated that it is still early and that advisors will offer spot Bitcoin ETFs to more investors.
Strange Behavior of Long-Term Holders
The recent sell-off by long-term Bitcoin holders reminds us of the ghosts of past capitulations. Repeating old losses may indicate a growing number of capitulation evidences among long-term Bitcoin stakeholder holders.
Bitcoin's Long-Term Holders (LTH), those who have held them for more than 155 days, have traditionally been considered "smarter money" due to their experience in overcoming the volatility of the main cryptocurrency. The key to their strategy is buying Bitcoin during price drops and selling it during market euphoria.
However, recent trends hint at a shift. Data analysis shows that LTH initiated the sell-off, and this trend continues. Notably, on January 22, about $625 million in profit was transferred to exchanges, which can be paralleled with the activity of January 17.
Data trends began to cause surprise on January 23 when LTH transferred coins to exchanges, suffering substantial losses of approximately $430 million due to Bitcoin falling below $39,000.
This situation ominously reflects the capitulation before the Luna crash, which occurred in May 2022. Then, almost the same amount was sent to exchanges at a loss, followed by a more serious loss of more than $600 million just a week later, right before Bitcoin's value shockingly fell below $20,000.
