Euro and pound have been plummeting for several days due to the extremely weak producer price data in the eurozone. Reportedly, the index showed a decrease from -8.8% to -10.6%, indicating not only a fall in inflation but also an increasing risk of a deflation, coupled with a potential gradual entry into recession. It seems that the European Central Bank will not only be the first among key monetary authorities to reduce interest rates, but will likely do so very rapidly. Consequently, the interest rate disparity, already favoring dollar, will only widen.
Today, dollar will continue to rise, once again influenced by macroeconomic statistics. Forecasts say retail sales in the eurozone will decline from -1.1% to -1.3%, which will negatively impact euro, pulling pound along with it.
Driven by speculative price jumps, EUR/USD almost hit 1.0700, marking a descent of more than 150 pips within two trading days. This led to the overheating of short positions in short-term periods. However, if the price stabilizes below 1.0700, the decrease may continue, even amid signs of euro being oversold.
GBP/USD broke the lower boundary of the seven-week horizontal channel at 1.2600/1.2800. This increased the volume of short positions, allowing sellers to continue the decline. At this stage, similar to euro, an overheating could be seen, which suggests the possibility of a rebound. To confirm the further decline, the pair needs to stabilize below 1.2500.
