Having reached 1990.00 yesterday and 1986.00 at the beginning of today's European trading session—the lowest since December 14 and an important medium-term support level (144 EMA on the daily chart), XAU/USD halted further movement downward.
Despite such a sharp decline, XAU/USD continues to trade in the zone of medium-term and long-term bullish markets, above key support levels of 1969.00 (200 EMA on the daily chart) and 1815.00 (200 EMA on the weekly chart), and it would be logical to enter new long positions when signals appear.
The first such signals could be the breakthroughs of local resistance levels at 1996.00, 2000.00, and then the level of 2006.00, through which the 200 EMA on the 15-minute chart currently passes.
In this case, the nearest targets will be resistance levels at 2021.00 (50 EMA on the daily chart) and 2027.00 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart). Breaking above these levels will only confirm our assumption and strengthen the relevance of long positions.
In an alternative scenario, the breakdown of medium-term support levels 1969.00 (200 EMA on the daily chart) and 1962.00 (50 EMA on the weekly chart) will direct XAU/USD towards the key support level of 1815.00 (200 EMA on the weekly chart). A break below will lead XAU/USD into the zone of a long-term bear market.
For now, long positions remain preferable. However, it is worth waiting for the publication of fresh macroeconomic data from the U.S. on Thursday and Friday. If they turn out to be strong, then a new wave of strengthening the dollar and a decline in XAU/USD should be expected.
Support levels: 1986.00, 1969.00, 1962.00, 1900.00, 1868.00, 1815.00
Resistance levels: 1996.00, 2000.00, 2002.00, 2006.00, 2021.00, 2027.00, 2057.00, 2060.00, 2065.00, 2070.00, 2080.00, 2088.00
Trading Scenarios:
Main Scenario: Buy Stop 1997.00. Stop-Loss 1984.00. Targets: 2000.00, 2002.00, 2006.00, 2021.00, 2027.00, 2057.00, 2060.00, 2065.00, 2070.00, 2080.00, 2088.00
Alternative Scenario: Sell Stop 1984.00. Stop-Loss 1997.00. Targets: 1969.00, 1962.00, 1900.00, 1868.00, 1815.00
"Targets" correspond to support/resistance levels. This also does not mean that they will necessarily be reached, but can serve as a guide when planning and placing trading positions.
