Analysis of macroeconomic reports:
There are fewer macroeconomic events on Tuesday compared to Monday. Unfortunately, most reports are of secondary importance, but in thin market conditions, even such reports can provoke a noticeable reaction. However, considering the current volatility, we don't expect significant movements. The Eurozone, Germany and UK Final Services PMI data will be released today. The initial estimates are more important. The Eurozone Producer Price Index will also be published, which can be considered a derivative report on inflation, but it also has a low impact on market sentiment.
The United States will release the ISM Services PMI on Tuesday. If the latest value turns out to be weaker than the forecast, the dollar may strengthen in both currency pairs. However, at the same time, the flat phase persists, so this potential growth is unlikely to change the general technical outlook.
Analysis of fundamental events:
Among the fundamental events of Tuesday, we can only highlight the speech of Federal Reserve Monetary Committee representative Michael Barr. However, take note that not every speech can trigger any market reaction. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak twice this week, and it's clear that the market will focus on these events, especially since the U.S. central bank meeting is scheduled for March 20.
General conclusion:
On Tuesday, only one key event is expected, which is the US ISM Services PMI. Volatility may gradually increase today, but the ISM data could also have a neutral impact. In this case, the market may not have much to react to. Both pairs continue to exhibit a flat trend, so the market needs crucial reports to break out of this pattern.
Basic rules of a trading system:
1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.
2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.
3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.
5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.
6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.
How to read charts:
Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.
The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.
Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.
Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.
