The EUR/USD pair on Friday experienced a rebound from the correction level of 50.0% (1.0918), a reversal in favor of the European currency, a rise to the Fibonacci level of 61.8% (1.0970), and a rebound from it. As a result, on Monday, the downward process may be resumed to the level of 1.0918. A rebound of the pair's rate from this level or the lower line of the ascending trend corridor will again allow counting on growth towards 1.0970. The decline of the European currency can be expected after the pair closes below the trend corridor. In this case, the trader sentiment will be characterized as "bearish."
The wave situation remains quite clear. The last completed upward wave confidently broke the peak of the previous wave (from February 12), and the last downward wave did not even come close to the previous low. Thus, at the moment, we have a "bullish" trend, and there is no sign of its completion in any wave. The new upward wave managed to break the peak of February 22 and continues to form. This allows me to expect stronger pressure from bulls in the near future, which we are currently observing. Despite the weak support of the background information, bulls continue to attack.
The information background on Friday was on the side of bulls since the two most important reports in the United States turned out to be weaker than traders' expectations. However, I would also like to draw attention to European statistics. The final GDP value in the fourth quarter was 0%. For the fifth quarter in a row, the European economy cannot show growth of more than 0.1%. It has clearly run out of fuel, and until the ECB starts lowering interest rates, there is no reason to expect economic growth. In my opinion, this is a negative factor. If we look at the days before Friday when bulls were also attacking, the information background did not strongly support them on those days either.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.0959). A rebound of quotes from the level of 1.0959 will work in favor of the US dollar and some decline towards 1.0862. Consolidation of quotes above the level of 1.0959 will increase the chances of further growth towards the next Fibonacci level of 76.4% (1.1081). The ascending trend corridor currently characterizes the trader sentiment as "bullish." Only a close below it will indicate that bears may launch a large-scale counterattack. "Bearish" divergence on the CCI indicator increases the probability of a reversal in favor of the dollar.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
In the last reporting week, speculators closed 5209 long contracts and 8666 short contracts. The sentiment of the "non-commercial" group remains "bullish" but continues to weaken. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 200,000, and short contracts - 133,000. I still believe that the situation will continue to change in favor of bears. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need a strong information background to maintain the "bullish" trend. I do not see such a situation now. At the same time, the total number of open long positions is less than the number of short positions (625K versus 656K). However, such a balance of power has been observed for quite some time.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On March 11, the economic events calendar does not contain any interesting entries. The influence of the information background on trader sentiment will be absent today.
EUR/USD forecast and trader tips:
Selling the pair is possible on a rebound from the level of 1.0959 on the 4-hour chart, with targets of 1.0918 and 1.0866. Or when closing below the ascending trend corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 1.0801. Purchases of the pair were possible when closing above the level of 1.0862 on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.0932. The target has been worked out. New purchases are possible when closing above the level of 1.0959 with a target of 1.1081.
