The coming week will be jam-packed with important events and economic statistics, which can have a significant impact on trading sentiment.
Among the most important and interesting, we highlight the two-day Fed meeting on monetary policy, which will kick off on Tuesday and complete on Wednesday. Then, on Tuesday and Thursday, market participants will get to know policy decisions from the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Swiss central bank. According to the market consensus, it is assumed that four central banks will maintain all settings of their monetary policies. In our opinion, this will only help maintain the current market sentiment and may support the strengthening of the American currency.
In addition, data on consumer inflation in the eurozone and the UK will arouse traders' attention. Consumer inflation is expected to slow down. In the case of lower figures from continental Europe, this could put pressure on the ECB, forcing it to think about cutting interest rates in the near future. The consumer price index is expected to decreases from 2.8% to 2.6% in annual terms. Thus, inflation is approaching the target level of 2%. The only limiting factor for the ECB may be the coordination of policy decisions between the Federal Reserve and the central banks of the US "dominion" countries, which are strictly tied to the Western sector of the global economy, led by America.
Also this week, data on inflation in Canada and some other economic data will be released, where again figures from the US will attract the greatest interest. PMIs and industrial production data will be available. It is expected that all of them will show a decrease. Poor data from the US should become an important signal for the Federal Reserve on interest rates.
Despite the fact the Fed's policymakers, as well as Chairman Jerome Powell himself, constantly make it clear that the central bank rests its policy decisions on two cornerstones: the labor market and inflation rates that. Meanwhile, worsening economic conditions are mirrored in a decrease in the US GDP for Q4 2023. Besides, the expected drop in business and manufacturing activity could catalyze fears of the economy falling into recession. This state of affairs may force the Federal Reserve to venture into a rate cut despite the inflation rate above 3%. The regulator might admit the fact that inflation is unlikely to fall to the cherished level of 2%.
It seems that such expectations are beginning to prevail in the American markets, supporting demand for stocks and preventing Treasury yields from a further rise.
What to expect from the US dollar?
We believe that the US dollar will consolidate against major currencies in anticipation of the Fed's policy decision. We believe that sideways trading in the currency market as well as the absence of any statements from the central bank and personally from Jerome Powell that there is no hope for a rate cut yet may not have a significant impact on the markets and the dollar's forex rate, since this scenario of events has already been priced in by investors. The market could click into gear only if Powell makes it clear at his press conference that interest rates may be lowered this year. Conversely, he might announce that an inflation rate of around 3% is acceptable, which means that rate cuts could start in May or June.
In these two cases, we should expect different reactions from the markets. In the first scenario, the US dollar may receive support. In the second scenario, it may come under selling pressure, which may cause commodity prices to rise. In this context, the price of gold could update the previous high.
Intraday outlook
EUR/USD
The instrument has been consolidating in anticipation of the inflation report from the Eurozone. A decline in inflation may weaken the euro. After a modest recovery, EUR/USD could reverse downward and sink below 1.0870. Then, it could head for 1.0800.
GBP/USD
The currency pair could decline again to 1.2655 due to a slowdown in inflation in the UK. The bearish pressure might escalate after the level of 1.2720 is passed.
