Trade analysis and tips for trading the Japanese yen
The test of the price at 151.59 occurred when the MACD started moving down from the zero mark, confirming the entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, this led to a decline in the pair to the target level of 151.10, allowing them to pull out of the market with about 40 points of profit. Considering the absence of significant fundamental statistics for the US in the second half of the day, it is accepted that pressure on the dollar will persist - especially after an unsuccessful attempt to rise towards the annual maximum during the European session today. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 151.32 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 151.89 (thicker green line). At around 151.89, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Counting on the pair's rise today will only be possible after breaking through 151.32 and active actions by dollar buyers at this level. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 151.01 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 151.32 and 151.89.
Sell Signal
Scenario 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after updating the level of 151.01 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 150.61, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will persist in case of unsuccessful growth and the return of buyers to the market, which will lead to a breakthrough of the lower boundary of a wider sideways channel. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 151.32 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the downward market. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 151.01 and 150.61.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
Thick green line – the expected price where you can set Take profit or manually take profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price, at which the trading instrument can be sold;
Thick red line – the expected price where you can set Take profit or manually take profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD indicator. When entering the market, following the overbought and oversold zones is important.
Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must be careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your deposit without placing stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
