The wave analysis for the GBP/USD pair remains quite complex. For several months now, we have been observing movements between the Fibonacci levels of 50.0% and 23.6%. Horizontal movement is not the best for wave analysis. As I have already noted, the wave pattern should be simple and understandable in order to work with it. At the moment, there is little simplicity and clarity in it. If the presumed wave 2 or b is indeed completed, then the construction of the expected wave 3 or c has begun. However, there are many doubts about this scenario because, at the moment, the market is in another sideways movement.
Moreover, only the British pound is involved in this sideways movement. The euro, which usually trades similarly 80% of the time, is in the process of building a downward trend section. From this fact alone, we can understand that something is wrong with the British pound. If this is evident to the naked eye, then trading the British pound involves increased risks. In the current situation, my readers can only continue to hope for the construction of wave 3 or c, the targets of which are located below the low of wave 1 or a. Therefore, the British pound should decline by at least another 600 basis points.
The British pound remains moderately expensive.
The GBP/USD exchange rate remained unchanged throughout Monday. There was no news background today, and there will be several important events during the week that the market may be waiting for. However, both of these conclusions have almost nothing to do with reality. If the British pound has been trading horizontally for several months now, then the market does not need news background at the moment. If there was a huge amount of information last week supporting the dollar, then the events of this week will also not lead to the movement I expect. Therefore, the sideways movement will continue. It can (theoretically) end at any moment, but it is unlikely that this moment will coincide with any important event. There have been many such events in recent months. Until the market itself stops idolizing the pound and increasing demand for it against all odds, the situation will not change.
When this happens, it isn't easy to say. The presumed wave 2 or b may further complicate its internal wave analysis. Working with the GBP/USD pair is very inconvenient right now because horizontal movement is, in fact, the absence of movement. Price fluctuations in a limited area may only allow you to profit on small-scale charts, where identifying waves does not make much sense. The situation there changes very quickly, and the expected profit from transactions is quite low. Therefore, I continue to look down on the British pound, but first, the sideways movement must end.
General conclusions.
The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At the moment, I continue to consider selling the pair with targets located below the 1.2039 mark, as I believe that wave 3 or c will sooner or later develop. However, until wave 2 or b is completed with one hundred percent certainty, we can expect the pair to rise to the 1.3140 mark, which corresponds to 100.0% according to Fibonacci. The deviation of quotes from the recent peaks is still too small to be confident at the beginning of the construction of wave 3 or c.
On the larger wave scale, the wave pattern is even more telling. The descending corrective leg of the trend continues to be built, and its second wave has taken on an extended appearance - at 76.4% of the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break through this mark could have led to the beginning of the construction of wave 3 or c.
The main principles of my analysis:
- Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play with; they often bring changes.
- If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
- There is no one hundred percent certainty in the direction of movement, and it can never be. Don't forget about Stop Loss protective orders.
- Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
