Early in the European session, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0385, below the 200 EMA, and below the downtrend channel forming since January 20.
The market is waiting for the Nonfarm Payrolls to be published in the United States. If this data is positive, we could expect a strong fall in the euro and EUR/USD could reach 1.0253.
We could expect a strong technical rebound to occur around the area of 0/8 Murray as the euro is showing positive signals according to the Eagle indicator. Therefore, after this technical correction, the bullish cycle will resume.
On the other hand, if the euro falls below the 21 SMA located around 1.0371, the outlook will be negative and a technical correction could occur which will be seen as a signal to sell.
We believe that the euro could continue its fall in the next few hours. Thus, as long as it trades within the bearish trend channel, the outlook will be negative, but we must be careful with the data that will be published during the American session, as the report could trigger strong volatility.
