FX.co ★ GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 15th (analysis of morning deals)

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.2482 level and planned to decide to enter the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The growth and formation of a false breakdown there led to a sell signal, but it never reached a major drop, as you can see on the chart. In the afternoon, the technical picture was revised.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

As expected, the absence of any statistics for the UK led to a bullish impulse in the first half of the day, but all this failed to develop into full-scale growth. The bears quickly proved themselves and now strong data on changes in the volume of retail trade in the United States and the growth of the Empire Manufacturing manufacturing index will be enough. Good reports will dump GBP/USD in the area of 1.2462, which I will use. Before entering the market, I will wait for the formation of a false breakdown there, which will give another chance for a return of demand with the prospect of recovery to the area of a new resistance of 1.2508, formed at the end of last week. A breakout and consolidation above this range after weak US statistics will strengthen the bulls' position quite strongly and open the way to 1.2539. The farthest goal will be a maximum of 1.2575, where I will fix the profit. In the scenario of a further decline in GBP/USD along the trend and a lack of activity on the part of the bulls at 1.2462 in the afternoon, the pair will continue to fall. In this case, only a false breakout near the monthly low of 1.2426 will confirm the correct entry point into the market. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from the 1.2375 minimum to correct by 30-35 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Bears have every chance of a further fall in the pound, but this requires good statistics on the United States. In the case of an upward correction, by analogy with the first half of the day, I would like to ensure that large sellers are in the area of 1.2508, where the moving averages are slightly lower, playing on their side. A false breakout there will give the correct entry point to sell to develop a downtrend and update support at 1.2462. A breakout and a reverse bottom-up test of this range will deal a strong blow to the bulls' positions, leading to the demolition of stop orders and opening the way to a 1.2426 – monthly low. I expect large buyers to show up there. The farthest target will be the 1.2375 area, where I will record profits. With the option of GBP/USD growth and lack of activity at 1.2508 in the afternoon, buyers will try to achieve a continuation of the upward correction at the beginning of the week. In this case, I will postpone sales until a false breakdown at 1.2539. Without a downward movement there, I will sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.2575, but counting on a correction of the pair down by 30-35 points within the day.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 2, there was a sharp increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones. Given the good fundamental background in the UK last week, buyers took advantage of the moment and increased their long positions. However, it should be understood that the soft policy of the Bank of England has not gone away, and new statements by representatives of the regulator may negatively affect the bullish prospects of the British dollar compared to the US dollar. Add to all this the need to maintain a tough position on the part of the Federal Reserve System, and the latest data forces this to be done, it is unlikely to count on a strong bull market in the GBP/USD pair. The latest COT report says that long non-profit positions increased by 7,091 to 98,352, while short non-profit positions decreased by 1,153 to 54,938. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 1,109.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further pair decline.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly H1 chart, which differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2435, will act as support.

Description of Indicators

• Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.

• Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.

• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence - convergence/divergence of moving averages). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.

• Bollinger Bands. Period 20.

• Non-commercial traders - speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.

• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.

• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.

• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.