Early in the American session, EUR/USD is trading around 1.0398 within the downtrend channel forming on the H4 chart since February 25th, below the 21 SMA, and below the 200 EMA with a bearish bias.
The euro could recover some of the losses in the next few hours as the 5/8 Murray represents a good support. However, we see strong pressure on the euro. This suggests opening short positions at about 1.0430, where the 200 EMA is located.
Should the euro reach the 1.0424 - 1.04 30 zone, it will be seen as a clear signal to sell with the first target at 1.0297. EUR/USD could even reach 4/8 Murray at 1.0253.
On the contrary, in case the euro consolidates above 1.0430, the bullish cycle could resume. Hence, we could see the euro reach 6/8 Murray around the psychological level of 1.0500. EUR/USD could even reach 7/8 Murray at 1.0620.
Technically, the euro is under bearish pressure. So, below 1.0500, any technical rebound will be seen as a signal to sell in the short term.
