For the GBP/USD pair, wave analysis remains quite complex. A successful attempt to break the Fibonacci level of 50.0% in April indicated the market's readiness to build a downward wave 3 or c. If this wave continues its construction, the wave pattern will become much simpler, and the threat of complicating the wave analysis will disappear. However, in recent weeks, the pair has not seen a decline, again raising doubts about the market's readiness for sales.
As I noted, the wave pattern should be simple and understandable. For a long time, the pair was in a sideways movement, and only now has there been an opportunity to build an impulsive downward wave. However, wave structures remain very complex, with many corrective waves.
In the current situation, my readers can still expect the construction of wave 3 or c, the targets of which are below the low of wave 1 or a at 1.2035. Therefore, the pound should decline by at least 500-600 basis points from current levels. With such a decline, wave 3 or c will be relatively small, and I expect much greater price declines. However, it may take a lot of time to build the entire wave 3 or c. Wave 2 or b lasted for 5 months.
Two birds with one stone.
The GBP/USD pair rate remained unchanged throughout Tuesday. In the first half of the day, demand for the British currency decreased; in the second half, it increased. The news background caused these movements, which turned out to be quite contradictory. However, the pound's movement in recent weeks and months also has very little in common with the concept of "regularity." The market has been building an upward wave for several weeks, which may be corrective as part of 3 or c. However, the wave 3 or c itself now looks so unconvincing that there are many doubts that it will be completed. Demand for the British pound is not decreasing, and for the dollar, it is not increasing, no matter what news comes out.
For example, today, the unemployment rate in Britain has increased, and the Producer Price Index in the US has also increased. These two reports were supposed to lower the pair by 50-60 points. The Fed is increasingly moving away from the start of the procedure for easing monetary policy, while the Bank of England is getting closer to it. If tomorrow it becomes known that there will be no slowdown in inflation in the US in April, this will be another reason for the increase in demand for the US currency. But I hardly doubt that the market will ignore it. Market participants' activity is currently weak, the news background is contradictory, wave analysis needs to be clarified, or at least has an ambiguous appearance.
General conclusions.
The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At the moment, I am still considering selling the pair with targets below the 1.2039 mark, as wave 3 or c continues its construction. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.2625 mark, equivalent to 38.2% according to Fibonacci, indicates the completion of the internal, corrective wave as part of 3 or c, but the 1.2470 mark prevented the Briton from continuing to build a downward wave.
On a larger wave scale, the wave pattern is even more eloquent. The downward correctional trend segment continues its construction, and its second wave has taken on an extended form - at 76.4% from the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break through this mark could have led to the start of building 3 or c, but at the moment, a corrective wave is being built.
The main principles of my analysis:
- Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play; they often bring changes.
- If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.
- There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Remember to stop loss orders.
- Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
