Analysis of trades and tips for trading the euro
A test of the 1.0855 price level coincided with the MACD indicator starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for selling the euro. Data released in the first half of the day showing no progress in reducing inflation in the Eurozone increased pressure on EUR/USD, yielding about 20 points of profit. In the second half of the day, aside from the Leading Indicators Index for the US, there is nothing significant, so risk asset buyers might expect a market reversal and a slight recovery of the pair by the end of the week. However, volatility and trading volume will likely remain low. Therefore, it is unlikely that we will move beyond the current channel. Regarding intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price area of 1.0849 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.0874. At 1.0874, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. Any euro rise today can be expected within the sideways channel since there are no reasons for a strong rise. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0832 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0849 and 1.0874.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I will sell the euro after reaching the 1.0832 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0814, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return, but trading near the lows of last Wednesday requires caution. Important! Before selling, please ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0849 price when the MACD indicator is overbought. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0832 and 1.0814.
What the chart shows:
- Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line: Estimated price for setting Take profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line: Estimated price for setting Take profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is crucial to consider overbought and oversold areas.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
