Analysis of transactions and tips on trading the Japanese yen
The tests of the levels I have indicated did not take place in the first half of the day. The data on Japan put pressure on the yen during Asian trading, but it never reached a major upward movement in the development of the trend. As for the American session, the figures on the Fed-Richmond manufacturing index and the Beige Book economic review are ahead of us. The data is unlikely to have much effect on volatility, so don't be surprised if the afternoon also passes within the side channel. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when I reach the entry point of 157.37 (green line) to grow to 157.90 (thicker green line on the chart). In the area of 157.90, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Counting on the pair's growth today to continue the trend is possible, but this requires strong US data and active buyer actions at the highs. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to grow from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today for two consecutive price tests of 157.08 when the MACD indicator will be in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect an increase to the opposite levels of 157.37 and 157.90.
Sell signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the level of 157.08 (the red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target of sellers will be the level of 156.65, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). The pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful consolidation in the area of the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the pair reaches two consecutive price tests of 157.37 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 157.08 and 156.65.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy a trading instrument.
Thick green line is the estimated price at which you can place a Take profit or fix profits yourself since further growth is unlikely above this level.
Thin red line is the entry price at which a trading instrument can be sold.
Thick red line is the estimated price where you can place Take profit or fix profits yourself since further decline is unlikely below this level.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice forex traders need to make decisions about entering the market very carefully. Before releasing important fundamental reports, staying out of the market is best to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during the news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must place stop orders to avoid losing the entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management but trade in large volumes.
Remember that for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, following the example I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
