The dollar is expected to grow throughout June. This month will see meetings of all the world's major central banks, so our anticipated increase in the dollar index by 370 points (3.495% from the current level) does not seem extraordinary, especially since the dollar index has already made similar moves twice between December 28 and April 16, each lasting about a month.
The extreme points of these movements have formed an upward price channel, marked in blue on the chart. The period of trend growth within the channel spans 33 days, excluding weekends. These periods are marked with a light blue dashed line. A pink line indicates the actual measured trend movement.
We see that a new growth phase began on May 16, and the measured segment gives us a movement completion precisely at the 314% Fibonacci retracement level of 108.38, coinciding with July 1.
In the current market realities, the dollar index level of 108.38 corresponds to a euro quote range of 1.0425/49, the upper boundary of which coincides with the low of October last year (which is also the low for all of 2023).
