Analysis of trades and trading tips for GBP/USD
The test of the 1.2723 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had significantly moved down from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell and missed part of the movement due to weak UK statistics and activity in the manufacturing sector. However, more important statistics are ahead, which could lead to a surge in volatility. We expect figures on the ISM manufacturing index, the reduction of which will lead to a sharp rise in the pound in the second half of the day. Additionally, we should look at the figures for changes in construction spending and total car sales. Good numbers would be a reason to sell the pound again. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.2729 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to 1.2767 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2767, I will exit the buys and open sells in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). The pound's growth today can be expected to continue the upward trend, but only after weak US data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2696 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.2729 and 1.2762 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the 1.2696 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2660. I will exit the sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will show activity in case of strong PMI data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2729 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.2696 and 1.2660 can be expected.
Chart Explanations
- Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick Green Line: The estimated price for setting Take Profit or independently fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick Red Line: The estimated price for setting Take Profit or independently fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: It's important to follow overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.
Important Notes for Beginners
Forex beginners should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
