Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe test of the 157.66 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was in the oversold zone, indicating the possibility of Scenario No. 2 for buying the dollar to continue the upward trend. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 pips, although it did not manage to break yesterday's highs. Considering that apart from the NAHB Housing Market Index, there is nothing else in the second half of the day, the dollar will likely continue its ascent. However, be cautious with buying near the local highs. The absence of buyer activity and lack of growth after updating ATH (All-Time Highs) could lead to a sharp downward movement. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy SignalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 158.07 (green line on the chart), with a target to rise to the level of 158.39 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.39, I will exit the buys and open sells in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Expectations for the pair's rise today are contingent on the continuation of the upward trend, but only after very strong US data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2: Today, I also plan to buy USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the 157.82 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect an increase to the opposite levels of 158.07 and 158.39. Sell signal Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the level of 157.82 (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 157.49 level, where I will exit the sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of unsuccessful attempts to reach the daily high and soft comments from Federal Reserve representatives. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2: Today, I also plan to sell USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the 158.07 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. Expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 157.82 and 157.49.
What's on the chart:Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.Thick green line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.Thick red line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD Indicator: It is important to use overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.
