The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. At the moment, we are observing the formation of the presumed wave 3 within wave 3 or c of the bearish section of the trend. If this is indeed the case, the decline in quotes will continue for quite some time, as the first wave of this section completed its formation around the 1.0450 mark. Therefore, the third wave of this trend section should end lower, even if it does not take on an impulsive form.
The mark of 1.0450 is a target only for the third wave. If the current bearish trend segment takes on an impulsive form, then we can expect a total of five waves, and the European currency could decline below the 1.0000 mark. Certainly, it's quite challenging to anticipate such a scenario at the moment, but over recent years, the currency market has seen its fair share of surprises.
As an alternative scenario, I currently envision the transformation of wave 3 or c into a corrective pattern with five waves labeled as a-b-c-d-e. Even in this case, the low of wave 3 or c should be below the low of wave 1 or a. Therefore, if the construction of wave e in 3 or c has now begun, rather than wave 3 in 3 or c, the decline of the instrument should continue.
The euro is poised for further decline, but patience is needed.
The EUR/USD rate increased by several tens of basis points on Monday. The increase in demand for the European currency does not affect the current wave pattern. The upward movement is too weak and isolated. On Monday, the instrument made an unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.0670 mark (which I mentioned over the weekend), leading to a retreat from the lows reached. Therefore, we are dealing with a technical signal. The rise of the European currency within the current week could develop if economic data from the European Union exceeds market expectations while data from the United States disappoints. However, overall, there will not be many important reports this week that could support the euro.
Certainly, I will closely monitor the GDP reports for the European Union and the United States for the first quarter. Final estimates for these indicators will be released this week, summarizing the first three months of 2024. Deviations from the second estimate are possible, which the market will anticipate. Such deviations do not occur as often as desired, but they are still possible. If they occur this time and are positive for the European currency, then we can expect the instrument's quotes to continue rising. However, our bearish trend segment still needs to be completed.
General conclusions
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD conducted, the construction of a bearish wave set continues. In the near future, I expect the continuation of the downward wave 3 or c with a significant decline in the instrument. I continue to consider only selling with targets around the calculated level of 1.0462. The internal wave pattern of wave 3 or c may take a five-wave corrective form, but even in this case, quotes should decline into the 4-5 figure range.
On a larger wave scale, it is evident that the presumed wave 2 or b, which has retraced more than 76.4% Fibonacci from the first wave, may have been completed. If this is indeed the case, then the scenario with the construction of wave 3 or c and the decline of the instrument below the 4-figure mark continues to unfold.
The basic principles of my analysis:
- Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to play out and often involve changes.
- If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it's better to avoid entering it.
- There is never a hundred percent certainty in the direction of movement. Remember protective Stop Loss orders.
- Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
