Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the European Currency
The test of the price at 1.0688 in the first half of the day coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move below the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the downward movement did not materialize, leading to loss realization. Economic data from the Eurozone matched economists' forecasts, giving euro buyers a slight edge ahead of important US statistics. Ahead of us are a series of significant figures: changes in GDP for the first quarter and durable goods orders will be key data, while the weekly initial jobless claims and trade balance in goods are secondary statistics. In the case of good data, demand for the US dollar will return. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Signal to Buy
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0705 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth of 1.0735. At 1.0735, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Today, one can expect the euro to increase only after weak US data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0688 at a moment when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to a reversal upwards in the market. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.0705 and 1.0735.
Signal to Sell
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after it reaches the level of 1.0688 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0665, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the case of strong US statistics. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0705 at a moment when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a reversal downwards in the market. Expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.0688 and 1.0665.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
Thick green line – anticipated price level where you can place Take Profit orders or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
Thick red line – anticipated price level where you can place Take Profit orders or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you're not using money management and trading with large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.
