Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the price at 160.53 occurred when the MACD had surged significantly above the zero mark, which limited further upside potential for the pair — especially as trading approached the yearly high. Morning statements from the Japanese Finance Minister "sobered up" dollar buyers as direct hints at the yen's weakness and the high dollar rate "smell" of potential direct interventions by the central bank. The positive direction for the dollar could come from strong statistics on changes in orders for durable goods in the US and a revised upward GDP for the first quarter. Weak data could lead to a downturn for the pair, as panic selling and profit-taking are possible after morning statements. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Signal to Buy
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY around 160.63 (green line) at the entry point, with the target to rise to 161.06 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 161.06, I will exit my buys and open sales in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Expectations for the pair's rise today depend on continuing the upward trend, especially after strong US data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price at 160.31 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a reversal upwards. Expect a rise towards the opposite levels of 160.63 and 161.06.
Signal to Sell
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after it updates to the level of 160.31 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 159.83. I will exit my sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful attempt to reach the daily high and weak US statistics. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price at 160.63 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. Expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 160.31 and 159.83.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line - Entry price where you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line - Target price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line - Entry price where you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line - Target price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator - When entering the market, following overbought and oversold zones is important.
Important: Beginners in the forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports are released, staying out of the market is best to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you need to start using money management and trading with large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, such as the example above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.
