GBP/USD
Yesterday's mixed data on the US economy kept the British pound from moving against the short-term downward trend. The timeframe is shifting towards a medium-term trend as it started more than two weeks ago. Visually, the price seems ready to break through the nearest support level at 1.2596, as it has already passed the support from the MACD line on the daily chart, but it also needs support from adjacent markets.
External markets are showing mixed results: stock indexes are set to decline, commodities are rising, gold is falling, and the dollar index is strengthening. If the price manages to breach the 1.2596 level even for speculative reasons, we don't expect to see GBP/USD at the target level of 1.2517, as investors are currently preparing for Independence Day in the US. Investors will probably process all the news at once, including today's personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index data, by July 5th, which is when the US employment data is set for release.
On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is showing progress in an ascending channel against the price's downward direction. To some extent, this is a convergence, indicating an impending correction or a sideways movement in consolidation. The price could correct upwards after it consolidates above the MACD line (1.2656), but it may show weakness once it approaches the June 25 peak (1.2701). We believe that the pound will fall, but we'll receive more information about this next week.
