Overview of trading and tips on EUR/USD
The price test of 1.0713 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just starting to rise from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point to buy the euro. However, after rising by 13 pips, the movement stalled. U.S. data helped the EUR/USD bulls maintain their positions at the end of last week. Long positions increased at today's Asian session, but this was more related to political intrigue in France.
Today, the pair may receive support from good reports on the manufacturing PMI from France, the manufacturing PMI from Italy, and the manufacturing PMI from Germany. The speech by European Central Bank board member Joachim Nagel will not play a significant role, as everyone is waiting for statements from ECB President Christine Lagarde. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy signals
Scenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches 1.0777 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0819. At the level of 1.0819, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today, but only after good Eurozone data and if the Manufacturing PMI data shows growth. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0743 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to a reverse market upturn. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0777 and 1.0819.
Sell signals
Scenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the level of 1.0743 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0695, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Weak Eurozone data may put pressure on EUR/USD. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0777 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0743 and 1.0695.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
The thick green line is the estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
