Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
There were no tests of the levels I indicated in the first half of the day, so I didn't get any suitable entry points into the market. The upward potential for the euro ended with weak data on manufacturing activity in the Eurozone countries. Now, the main focus will shift to the manufacturing statistics in the USA and the speech by the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde. The US ISM Manufacturing Index figures might also disappoint, giving euro buyers every chance to continue the upward trend seen at the beginning of this week. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price area of 1.0772 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.0819. At 1.0819, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming to move 30-35 points from the entry point. Upward movement of the euro today can be expected only after very weak data on the US manufacturing indexes. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0733 at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to the opposite levels of 1.0772 and 1.0819 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after it reaches 1.0733 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0695, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of strong US statistics. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0772 at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0733 and 1.0695 can be expected.
What is on the chart:
- Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
- Thick green line – the suggested price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
- Thick red line – the suggested price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must carefully make entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
