Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The test of the 1.2627 price level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. After the pair fell by 12 points, demand for the pound returned, preventing sellers from updating the previous month's low. This triggered active buying at attractive prices and led to a reassessment of the technical picture for the second half of the day. The key event of the day will be the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, as only some will likely be interested in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. If Powell continues to adhere to his previous statements, the dollar may quickly recover all it lost during the European session, leading to another attempt to break the monthly low. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when it reaches the entry point around 1.2670 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.2703 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2703, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the entry-level). The pound's growth today can be anticipated only after weak data from the US. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case the price at 1.2646 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.2670 and 1.2703 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the level of 1.2646 (red line on the chart) is updated, leading to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2617. I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will show themselves after hawkish comments from Powell. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case the price at 1.2670 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.2646 and 1.2617 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
- Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line – Target price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line – Target price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
