Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
During the first half of the day, I expected dollar buyers to recover some of their lost positions, which did happen. However, since the test of the prices I indicated did not occur, I needed help finding a suitable entry point to buy dollars. The American session might change everything, as the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings data, and the non-farm payroll employment data from the U.S. will determine the pair's direction at the end of this week. It is crucial to see if the figures match the forecasts or deviate significantly. The market movement will depend on this. A significant positive deviation will strengthen the dollar and boost the USD/JPY. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on Scenario No. 1, despite the MACD indicator readings, as I expect strong and directed movement after the reports.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 160.95 (green line on the chart) with a target of 161.72 (thicker green line). Around 161.72, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a 30-35 point movement in the opposite direction from the level). The pair's growth today is only expected after strong U.S. labor market data. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and that it is starting its upward move.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 160.60 price, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 160.95 and 161.72.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level of 160.60 (red line on the chart) is updated, leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.95 level, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25 point movement in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of weak data, continuing the downward correction. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 160.95 price, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 160.60 and 159.95.
Chart Explanation:
- Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, using overbought and oversold zones is important.
Important: Beginner forex traders must carefully decide about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before releasing significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without setting stop-loss orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
