Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The first test of the 1.0841 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly from the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy, and the euro was overbought and already near the monthly high. With good statistics for the Eurozone, it was easier to count on the development of the upward trend. Shortly after, the second test of 1.0841 occurred when the MACD indicator was in the overbought area and was declining, which allowed scenario №2 for sale to be realized. At the time of writing, the pair had already moved down by more than 20 points. Only data on US consumer credit volume is expected in the second half of the day. If the report is not particularly disappointing, sellers will have a chance for a more significant downward movement of the euro. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of scenarios №1 and №2.
Buy Signal
Scenario №1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price of around 1.0844 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.0879. At 1.0879, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. It is unlikely that a strong upward movement of the euro will be expected. However, purchases will be relevant to the development of the upward trend. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario №2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0815 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0844 and 1.0879.
Sell Signal
Scenario №1: I will sell the euro after reaching the 1.0815 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0770 level, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of a failed attempt to break out of the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.
Scenario №2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0844 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0815 and 1.0770.
Chart Explanation
- Thin green line: The entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
- Thick green line: The estimated price for setting Take Profit or independently fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: The entry price to sell the trading instrument.
- Thick red line: The estimated price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: It is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.
Important Note
For beginner traders in the forex market, making market entry decisions very carefully is crucial. Before releasing important fundamental reports, staying out of the market is best to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
