General overview for 25/11/2013 09:30 CET
About two weeks ago, I had posted two possible scenarios of last upside wave development (wave 5). Those sceanarios were either Ending Diagonal Wave 5 termination pattern OR upside breakout after wave 4 black Triangle is finished.
Currently, in Daily chart traders can see both of this ideas and the possible wave developments here:
SCENARIO 1 - MAIN COUNT - Ending Diagonal Idea - After completing corrective wave (b) navy on lower time frames, there is last wave to the upside left here for the ED idea to be finished. The target is 138.13 - 138.70 zone. The price should then reverse and the whole cycle of big wave 1 should be finished.
SCENARIO 2- ALTERNATE COUNT - Wave 4 Triangle Breakout Idea - Two first waves are done after Triangle is done and now the price is wave 3. The target for this wave is much more higher than the target for Scenario 1.
In H4 time frame traders can see more specific target range of 138.23 - 138.45 as the top for wave Y brown of wave C. Nevertheless, some overshoot to the 138.70 level might happen.
In H1 time frame the price is done with wave a purple and more downside correction in wave b purple is comming BEFORE the price will reverse and the trend is resumed for more upside targets. Break below Weekly Pivot is bearish here and the count will be adjusted. Alternate count here is Triange Breakout idea.
Support/Resistance:
138.13 -138.70 - Daily Target Projection
138.22 - 138.45 - H4 Target Projection
137.97- Intraday High
137.63 - Intraday Support | Channel Breakout Level |
137.26 - Intraday Support | Key Intraday Level |
136.97 - Intraday Support
136.47 - Weekly Pivot
135.63 - WS1
Trading recommendations:
Short positions should be in play after 137.63 is broken with SL above the Intraday High level and TP1 at 137.23 and TP2 at 136.96. Then buying at the dips is advised as long as Weekly Pivot level is not broken to the downside (needs a H1 close below 136.47).
