Overview of trading and tips on EUR/USD
The price test of 1.0844 in the second half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which clearly limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second price test of 1.0844 occurred when the MACD indicator was already in the overbought area and was gradually declining from it, so traders could implement the second scenario No. 2 for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell about 20 pips, which was more than half of the intraday volatility. Reports on the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index and the trade balance of Germany were disappointing, which was the first reason for the lack of demand for risky assets. The second reason is today's absence of economic data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaking before the US Senate Banking Committee. But we will discuss that in the forecast for the U.S. session. For now, during the European session, it is better to trade within the channel as it is unlikely for the euro to move in a specific direction. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy signals
Scenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches the area 1.0844 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0879. At the level of 1.0879, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. We don't expect the euro to show growth in the first half of the day. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0815 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to a reverse market upturn. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0844 and 1.0879.
Sell signals
Scenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the level of 1.0815 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0770, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will return today if the pair fails to consolidate near the weekly high. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0844 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0815 and 1.0770.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
The thick green line is the estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
