While the US dollar braces for another storm related to US inflation data, Federal Reserve representative Lisa Cook stated that, although a soft landing of the economy after periods of high inflation is rare, this is exactly what she forecasts for her country's economy.The primary argument is the current reduction in inflation, which is occurring without causing significant damage to the labor market. "My baseline forecast is that inflation will continue to move towards the target over time without a substantial further rise in unemployment," Cook said on Thursday in a prepared speech at the Australian Conference of Economists in Adelaide.
Cook also noted that the Fed monitors the unemployment rate closely and will respond immediately if necessary. "There may be a lot of non-linearity in the latest data, but if necessary, we will respond immediately," she said. Cook's speech also focused on global prices and their impact on economies after the coronavirus pandemic. The politician noted that many reasons explain the rise in inflation in many countries, such as difficulties in supply chains and disruptions in global food and energy supplies. Let me remind you that the chairman of the Federal Reserve System recently spoke about the same thing. During his speech to the US Congress, he focused precisely on the labor market and not on price growth. During his Capitol Hill appearance, the Fed Chairman noted that policymakers are awaiting additional data to confirm a steady path towards the 2% inflation target.Traders estimate the probability of a quarter-point rate cut in September at just over 70%. The Fed Chair also emphasized that high inflation is not the only risk facing the central bank. It noted that the policy committee is now paying more attention to the labor market in light of recent weak data.As for today's inflation data, a slowdown in price growth might lead to discussions about more than one rate cut this year. If prices rise, the US dollar is likely to strengthen. However, the most negative scenario for traders, but not for the Fed, would be if the figures align with economists' expectations. There would be no market reaction in this case, although the chances of strengthening risk assets, including the euro and the British pound, would significantly increase.Technical Outlook for EUR/USDCurrently, EUR/USD buyers must consider reclaiming the 1.0845 level. This will allow them to aim for a test of 1.0870. From there, they can target 1.0900, but achieving this without support from major players will be quite challenging. The furthest target would be the maximum at 1.0940. In the event of a decline in the trading instrument, I expect serious actions from major buyers only around the 1.0810 area. If there is no activity, it would be wise to wait for a retest of the 1.0785 minimum or open long positions from 1.0760.
