Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
The test of the price at 1.0878 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the euro in continuation of the upward trend. As a result, the pair has risen by about 15 points, maintaining the chance to update the monthly high. In the second half of the day, we have data that could contribute to this. It all starts with the US Producer Price Index and the Producer Price Index excluding food and energy and ends with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations from the same institution. Weak data indicating a decline in inflation will provoke new dollar sales and euro purchases. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenarios #1 and #2 to continue the trend development.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0902 (the green line on the chart) with the target of rising to the level of 1.0930. At the 1.0930 point, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong upward movement of the euro today can be expected after weak US inflation data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0880 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.0902 and 1.0930.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0880 (the red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0850, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of a failed attempt to go beyond the daily maximum and news of rising inflation in the US. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0902 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.0880 and 1.0850.
What's on the chart:
- Thin green line: Entry price to buy the trading instrument.
- Thick green line: Expected price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: Entry price to sell the trading instrument.
- Thick red line: Expected price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
