Overview of trading and tips on USD/JPY
The price test of 155.94 occurred when the MACD indicator started falling from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, USD/JPY continued to fall along the downward trend, yielding a profit of about 30 pips. Today, the dollar is expected to lose ground despite disappointing manufacturing data, which fell below 50 points, indicating a contraction. However, solid figures in the services sector offset the report above, boosting Japan's composite PMI. It is best to continue trading according to the downward trend but be highly cautious with short positions at the current weekly lows, as demand for the dollar could return at any moment—especially since other risk assets are again starting to lose value in tandem with it. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy signals
Scenario No. 1. Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the entry point around 154.85 plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to the level of 155.86 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. Around 155.86, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on the pair to rise today, but it's better to act as low as possible. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 154.05 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 154.85 and 155.86.
Sell signals
Scenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 154.05 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 153.15, where I am going to exit short positions and immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return at any moment, especially in case the price fails to consolidate around the intraday high. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive price tests at 154.85 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels 154.05 and 153.15.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
The thick green line is the estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
