Overview of trading and tips on USD/JPY
The price test of 154.04 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's potential to fall. For this reason, I did not sell on the breakthrough of the monthly lows. But buying on the rebound at 153.40, which I also highlighted in the forecast for the US session, made it possible for traders to earn about 50 pips of profit. Yesterday, data on manufacturing activity was disappointing, but this did not pose any problem for the yen bulls, who increasingly rely on rumors that the Japanese central bank might raise interest rates at the upcoming meeting. At the same time, the Federal Reserve plans to lower them. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy signals
Scenario No. 1. Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the entry point around 152.95, plotted by the green line on the chart, intending to rise to the level of 153.89 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. Around 153.89, I will exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. One can hardly count on the pair's growth today. At most, we may see a minor bullish correction. Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 151.96 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 152.95 and 153.89.
Sell signals
Scenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 151.96 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 151.15, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return at any moment, especially if the price fails to consolidate around the intraday high. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive price tests at 152.95 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels, 151.96 and 151.15.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
The thick green line is the estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
