On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair retraced to the 76.4% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.0822. The rebound from this level supported the US dollar and resumed the decline towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0822. A consolidation above the 1.0858 level could indicate a more significant rise for the euro. The pair has settled below the trend channel, but bears may only have enough momentum for a corrective wave.
The wave situation has become slightly more complex but remains clear overall. The last upward wave exceeded the peak of the previous wave and can be considered complete. Consequently, the bears have begun forming a corrective wave. To reverse the "bullish" trend, bears need to break the low of the previous downward wave, around the 1.0668 level. This would require a further drop of about 180 points, which might take 2-3 weeks given current trader activity.
On Wednesday, the information provided support for both bulls and bears. Morning business activity indices in Germany and the Eurozone fell short of expectations, disappointing the bulls. However, American business activity indices supported buyers. The services sector had a positive trend (rising from 55.3 to 56.0), but the manufacturing sector index dropped from 51.6 to 49.5. As a result, neither bulls nor bears had a clear advantage. The current pause is likely temporary. The bears couldn't continue forming a corrective wave yesterday, and bulls are now retreating. The market's direction depends significantly on economic reports, which have recently been disappointing. If US data remains weak, the pair's decline could persist.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has reversed in favor of the US dollar and consolidated below the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.0876. This suggests that the decline may continue towards the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0794. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicator today. The decline has continued since a "bearish" divergence was identified on the CCI indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
In the last reporting week, speculators opened 14,108 long positions and closed 7,018 short positions. The "Non-commercial" sentiment changed to bearish a few weeks ago, but bulls are currently dominant. Speculators now hold 180,000 long positions and 155,000 short positions.
The situation is expected to continue favoring the bears. I see no long-term reasons to buy the euro, as the ECB has begun easing monetary policy, which will lower yields on bank deposits and government bonds. In contrast, US yields will remain high for several more months, making the dollar more attractive to investors. The potential for a decline in the euro remains significant, even according to COT reports. However, graphical analysis currently does not support a strong bearish outlook for the euro.
News Calendar for the US and Eurozone:
- Eurozone – Germany's IFO Business Climate Index (08:00 UTC)
- US – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)
- US – Core Durable Goods Orders (12:30 UTC)
- US – Q2 GDP (12:30 UTC)
The economic calendar for July 25 includes several important events. The influence of news on trader sentiment today may be moderate, particularly in the afternoon.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations
Selling the pair was possible after consolidation below the 1.0917 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0858. Since the bears have managed to break below the 1.0858 level, sell positions can be maintained with targets at 1.0822 and 1.0785–1.0797. I would avoid buying in the near term as the trend recently shifted to bearish.
Fibonacci levels are built between 1.0917–1.0668 on the hourly chart and 1.0450–1.1139 on the 4-hour chart.
