A combination of supportive factors helps gold attract buyers for the second consecutive day. The U.S. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index data released on Friday showed a modest increase in June inflation, raising expectations for the Federal Reserve to soon begin its rate-cutting cycle. This leads to a further decline in U.S. Treasury yields, keeping dollar bulls on the defensive and acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.
Additionally, geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East provide additional support to the precious metal as a safe-haven asset. However, due to the optimistic sentiment in global equity markets, which typically undermines demand for safe-haven currencies, the growth remains limited.
Traders should also await the results of the two-day FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, which will be published on Wednesday. Alongside major U.S. macroeconomic data scheduled for the start of the new month, including the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) employment report, this will give new impetus to the commodity.
From a technical perspective, recent repeated failures to find acceptance below the 50-day SMA and the subsequent rebound require some caution for bears, especially against the backdrop of neutral oscillators on the daily chart. Therefore, before opening further buy positions, it would be wise to wait for strong subsequent purchases by large players.
At the same time, a full-fledged impulse above the round level of $2400 would face some resistance around $2415 before last week's swing high, near $2432. Sustained strength beyond this high would indicate that the corrective decline from the historical high reached earlier this month has exhausted itself, paving the way for additional growth. The precious metal could then rise to intermediate resistance at $2469-2475 and test the record high in the $2484 zone.
On the other hand, weakness below the $2380 level will continue to attract buyers near the 50-day SMA, currently tied to the $2360-2359 area, and will remain limited. However, a sustained break of this support will be viewed as a new trigger for bears and drag the price to the next relevant support in the $2325 area. The downward trajectory could then continue further, up to testing the round level of $2300.
