Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The test of the price at 153.29 coincided with the beginning of the MACD indicator's downward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar along the trend. However, the market reversed after moving down by 10 points, leading to a stop loss. Purchases at 153.75 were not opened, as the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward and was far from the zero mark when updating the level. Trading will remain within the channel in the second half of the day, as there are no reports from the U.S. that could lead to a spike in USD/JPY volatility. However, it is better to focus on selling the dollar, as the Federal Reserve might lower rates this Wednesday, and the Bank of Japan might raise theirs. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 153.96 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 154.46 (thicker green line). Around 154.46, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). It is unlikely that the pair will see a strong rise today, so it is better to look for purchases as low as possible. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 153.55 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect growth to the opposite levels of 153.96 and 154.46.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after updating the level of 153.55 (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 153.04, where I will exit the sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful attempt to break above 153.96. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to fall from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 153.96 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 153.55 and 153.04.
What the Chart Shows:
Thin green line: Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.Thick green line: Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line: Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.Thick red line: Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold areas.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market must make entry decisions cautiously. Before releasing important fundamental reports, staying out of the market is best to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
