Last week, the mainstream US media hinted at the possibility of an interest rate cut as early as the Federal Open Market Committee's July meeting. Many expected the current week to begin with further development of this topic. However, nothing of the sort happened. On the contrary, everyone unanimously spoke about maintaining interest rates at their current levels. This has led to a substantial increase in the US dollar. But it would be rash to anticipate a continuation of this trend. There is speculation that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might almost directly suggest the possibility of lowering the interest rate following the September meeting. Previously, Powell had never given any indications about the timing of the rate cut. This prospect will likely restrain the dollar from further growth. Therefore, today, we are likely to see consolidation around current levels.
The EUR/USD pair managed to strengthen its short positions during a brief process of regrouping trading forces. As a result, a new local low was established last week, with the quote approaching the support level of 1.0800.
On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of 30/50, indicating the appeal of short positions in the market.
Regarding the Alligator indicator on the same time frame, the moving average lines are pointing downward, which corresponds to a descending cycle.
Expectations and Perspectives
To strengthen the corrective cycle, the euro must stabilize below the 1.0800 level. Otherwise, market participants may use this level as support, potentially leading to a gradual recovery of the euro.
Complex indicator analysis indicates a downward cycle in the short-term and intraday time frames.
