Overview of trading and tips on EUR/USD
The price test of 1.0827 occurred when the MACD indicator started to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro following the intraday trend. As a result, EUR/USD dropped 20 pips. Buying on the rebound at 1.0806 also yielded about 15 pips of profit. Strong US data led to a fall in the euro in the second half of the day. However, after testing the weekly low, sellers retreated since the Federal Reserve may announce important decisions today that could affect the balance of power in the market. We will discuss this in more detail in the forecast for the U.S. session.
In today's European session, reports on retail sales and the unemployment rate in Germany and an important indicator on the Eurozone Consumer Price Index for July may warrant investor interest. A decline in inflation would negatively impact the euro, possibly leading to a new EUR/USD sell-off. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy signals
Scenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches 1.0828, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 1.0854. At the level of 1.0854, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. We can only count on the euro to rise today after good Eurozone data. Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case the price at 1.0813 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the instrument's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0828 and 1.0845.
Sell signals
Scenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0813, plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0795, where I will exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will return today if it fails to consolidate in the area of the intraday high and weak data. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2. I will also sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0828 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0813 and 1.0795.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
