The results of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting implied a significant rise in the dollar, but it never happened. The market continues to stagnate despite statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He explicitly mentioned the need to begin easing monetary policy. However, he did not specify when this process would start. Although there is no doubt that interest rates will be lowered as early as September, the market was generally prepared for this development. Furthermore, according to preliminary estimates, inflation in the eurozone accelerated from 2.5% to 2.6% instead of slowing down to 2.3%. This creates a precondition for the European Central Bank to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, contributing to the single European currency's strength. In other words, these factors somewhat balanced each other out.
Today, the focus will be on events unfolding in Europe. First, investors expect another interest rate cut from the Bank of England, which will support the U.S. dollar. Second, the eurozone is expected to see a sharp increase in the unemployment rate from 6.4% to 6.9%. Due to the scale of the change, this is likely to have the most significant impact. Therefore, despite Powell's statements yesterday, there are all the prerequisites for further strengthening of the dollar.
Despite a rich flow of information, the EUR/USD pair has not shown any speculative activity. The quote has formed a characteristic stagnation around the local low of the corrective cycle, as the support level of 1.0800 serves as a support.
On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of 30/50, indicating that the bearish sentiment persists in the market.
Regarding the Alligator indicator on the same time frame, the moving average lines point downward, corresponding to a downward cycle.
Expectations and Perspectives
Subsequent price fluctuations within the 1.0800/1.0850 range are possible in this situation. When the price breaks out of either boundary of the established range, a major spike in speculative activity is expected.
Complex indicator analysis points to a stagnant phase in the short-term and intraday periods. The indicators are unstable.
