The market is set on further weakening of the dollar. Even the extremely disappointing data on retail sales in the eurozone, which slowed from 0.5% to -0.3%, did not provide any notable support to the US dollar. Overall, the market continues to be governed by rumors and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's actions. Investors still believe the US central bank will immediately lower interest rates by 0.50%. Furthermore, there is speculation about a possible emergency meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The dollar will remain under pressure if all this noise does not settle.
During the corrective phase, the EUR/USD pair locally fell almost 100 pips from the 1.1000 level. This movement still fits within the tactical component of the upward cycle.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the RSI indicator reflects behavior similar to the price on the trading chart. Initially, the indicator entered the overbought zone, which coincides with the price reaching the 1.1000 level. Afterward, the indicator returned to the 50/70 zone, indicating a pullback.
Regarding the Alligator indicator on the same time frame, the moving average lines point upwards, corresponding to an upward cycle.
Expectations and Perspectives
In this situation, the corrective phase is still relevant in the market. However, if by the end of the day there is no stabilization of the price below 1.0900, it can be assumed that the correction is ending. This could lead to a potential increase in the volume of long positions and a gradual recovery of the euro.
The comprehensive indicator analysis signals a correction in the short-term and intra-day periods.
