Analysis of trades and tips on USD/JPY
The price test of 146.95 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting further downward potential for the pair. For this reason, I did not sell. After quite an extended period, another test at 146.95 took place when the MACD began to move down from the zero mark, which means traders could enter the market to sell the dollar. However, after the pair fell 25 pips, the pressure decreased. Yesterday's statements by the deputy governor of the Bank of Japan, stating that the central bank would not raise interest rates when financial markets are unstable, calmed the markets, but it did not last long. Today, the demand for the yen has returned, and Japanese data on bank lending and the current account did not influence this. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and 2 for selling further along the trend.
Buy signals
Scenario No. 1. Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the entry point around 146.49, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 147.49 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. At around 147.49, I will exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. The pair can only rise today within the framework of an upward correction. But the higher the pair, the more attractive it is to sell the dollar. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 145.85 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 146.49 and 147.49.
Sell signals
Scenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing 145.85 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 144.84, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return at any moment, especially in case of unsuccessful correction in the first half of the day and failure to test the daily high. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive price tests at 146.49 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite level of 145.85 and 144.84.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
