Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0930 level happened when the MACD indicator had significantly dropped from the zero line, clearly limiting the pair's downward potential, especially given the complete lack of eurozone statistics. For this reason, I did not sell euros. In the second half of the day, weekly data on the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. and changes in wholesale inventories are expected. The speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin will probably play a key role in market volatility. If there is no reaction to the politician's statements, the pair will likely end the day within a sideways channel. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy euros upon reaching the price around 1.0941 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to the level of 1.0960. At the point of 1.0960, I will exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. A slight upward movement of the euro today can only be expected after weak U.S. labor market data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and only starts to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0916, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth to the levels of 1.0941 and 1.0960 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell euros after reaching the level of 1.0916 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0895, where I plan to exit the market and buy euros immediately in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if the attempt to rise above the daily high is unsuccessful. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and only starts to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0941, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the levels of 1.0916 and 1.0895 can be expected.
What is on the Chart:
- Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the currency pair.
- Thick Green Line: The assumed price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the currency pair.
- Thick Red Line: The assumed price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider the zones of overbought and oversold.
Important Note: Beginner traders in the forex market should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, to trade successfully, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are generally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
