Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The levels I marked in the first half of the day were never tested, so I couldn't enter the market. The pound made an upward surge following the U.K. labor market data, but buyers quickly lost momentum, leading to a gradual decline in the pair and a return to a more balanced price level. Now, all focus shifts to U.S. statistics and the Producer Price Index report, which is expected to show a decline, potentially weakening the dollar and leading to a rise in the pound, continuing the morning's trend. Additionally, a speech by a Federal Reserve representative could support GBP/USD. Regarding intraday strategy, I plan to follow scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches the entry point around 1.2810 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 1.2872 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2872, I will exit the purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30-35 point movement from that level). A rise in the pound is likely today following weak U.S. statistics. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and has just begun to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.2777 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.2810 and 1.2872.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.2777 level (red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.2722 level, where I will exit the sales and immediately open purchases (targeting a 20-25 point movement from that level). Sellers will strengthen their positions if the Federal Reserve representatives take a strong stance. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and has just begun to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.2810 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.2777 and 1.2722.
Details on the Chart:
- Thin green line: Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
- Thick green line: Estimated price where you can set a Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
- Thick red line: Estimated price where you can set a Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important Notes:
Beginner traders in the forex market should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without setting stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is generally an unprofitable strategy for intraday traders.
